ICE Bans and Electric Timelines

ICE Bans and Electric Timelines

Electric Transition Timelines

While the internal combustion engine (ICE) might not be dead yet, that doesn’t mean that it isn’t on its way to the grave. The ICE bans are coming! Every week brings news of a country, state, province, or company driving another nail in the coffin of the ICE era. Once the ball got rolling, everyone sprinted to keep up. So, we will all see an increase in the number of EVs on the road as time marches quickly on. Not only will there be fewer vehicles at the traditional gas pump. We’re also experiencing a need for ever-growing electric charging infrastructure. That infrastructure will need to support everything from motor scooters to semis!

Change of Timeline Predictions

EV sales seem ready to surpass ICE sales in the not-too-distant future. In June 2021, Ernest & Young LLP released an updated forecast for when EVs should overtake ICEs in new vehicle sales. Their numbers say that the electrified future is coming and coming fast! In fact, we should expect EV sales in the US, China, and Europe to outpace the sale of other vehicles by 2033. Additionally, they expect non-EV sales to fall below 1% by 2045.

Positive Feedback Loop

The more countries enact end dates for ICE vehicles, the more manufacturers respond. But also, the more influential vehicle manufacturers set transition dates, the greater the pressure is for others to follow suit. These end dates make it easier for countries to see eventual ICE bans as achievable.

ICE End Dates: What are they? Who's setting them?

While the following lists are by no means exhaustive, they present a good idea of where the world is heading and how quickly. Barely a month goes by without an announcement of new end dates for ICE vehicles.

Countries

US, 2030 (non-binding)

The United States has no binding mandate as of yet. However, the Biden administration has been very supportive of the transition to EVs. As of July 2021, the administration had set goals and was supposedly working with manufacturers to meet them. The initial goal is to make 50% of all new vehicles sold in the country to be at least somewhat electrified by 2030.

UK & Denmark, 2030/2035

Although one announced its intentions much earlier than the other, both Denmark and the United Kingdom are looking at the same phase-out plan. The goal is to cease sales of purely gas-powered and diesel vehicles by 2030 (although hybrids will still be allowed). After that, in 2035, both countries will require all new vehicle sales to be truly zero-emission.

Canada, 2035

Following in the UK’s footsteps, Canada has just announced its ICE ban for the middle of the next decade. 2035 will see the end of all new cars and light-duty trucks that are not emissionless.

Thailand, 2035

In an interview with Bloomberg, an adviser to the Energy Ministry’s national policy, Kawin Thangsupanich stated that the world was moving toward an emissionless future and Thailand’s job was to keep up. Thailand plans to incentivize EV purchases through tax breaks and purchase bonuses. In doing so, the country hopes also to encourage outside investment.

US States

A few US cities and states have gone ahead and set timelines. They are leading the way and willing to walk the emissionless path alone if needed. As seen before, though, California’s vehicle market is so large that many manufacturers have to weigh whether to sell two different kinds of vehicles. Do they want to have a US version and a California version, or will they simply match California’s requirements? So far, though, most states seem willing to wait for the federal government to make the kind of stance that other countries have made.

California, 2035

In September 2020, Governor Newsom signed an executive order requiring all new cars and passenger trucks sold within the state to be zero-emission vehicles by 2035. However, those vehicles don’t have to be completely electrified. His phase-out simply requires them to be something other than gas-powered vehicles.

Massachusetts, 2035

As part of its state-wide 2050 decarbonization plan, Massachusetts has followed California’s lead with a binding resolution to ban all new vehicles that are not zero-emissions from being sold after 2035.

Companies

The list of vehicle manufacturers who have set transition timelines is constantly growing. So here is a list of well-known companies that have announced all-electric dates for their vehicle lineups.

2025

  • Jaguar

2030

  • Volvo

2035

  • GM
  • Audi
  • Volkswagen

2040

  • Honda

2050

  • Mazda
  • Mitsubishi
  • Nissan

The Bottom Line

The more things change, the more quickly things change. ICE bans are just the tip of the iceberg. EY’s newest predictions for the EV tipping point show that we’re not only keeping up with the Joneses anymore. We’re also keeping up with Denmark, Jaguar, and California as they plan their big phase-outs. Big names with a lot of influence are throwing themselves into the electrified future and dragging everyone along with them. Therefore, expect big changes in a short time, and you won’t be disappointed!
Do Not Enter Ban Sign